This is the last article on my series covering the biggest positives (touchdowns) and negatives (turnovers) from the NFC North QBs in 2014. Matthew Stafford threw 12 interceptions during the 2014 regular season and lost 3 fumbles. In his playoff game against the Cowboys, he added on another interception and lost fumble for 17 total turnovers on the year. First, I’m going to cover some charting data I came up with while watching his passing. Then, on page 2 and beyond, there are my thoughts of the individual plays themselves. Here are the articles in the series that I have completed so far:
One of the first things I charted for each interception was blame. I assigned three categories, which should be self-explanatory:
Blame
| QB’s Fault | 7 |
| Partially QB’s fault | 4 |
| Not QB’s fault | 2 |
When Stafford throws an INT, the most likely cause is that he was trying to force a deep pass and it ended up in the defense’s hands. Outside of that, he did have a few plays where his protection just completely failed him, which led to errant throws and passes tipped at the line of scrimmage. There were also two plays where his receiver just let a pass bounce off of their hands and into the arms of the defender. All told, throwing just 13 interceptions in 17 games isn’t bad, especially because only 7 of those were fully his fault in my mind.
What caused the interceptions?
Cause
| Bad Decision | 7 |
| Bad Throw | 11 |
| Pressured | 3 |
| Great Defense | 2 |
| Dropped Pass | 2 |
| Tipped By Defense | 4 |
I only counted a pass as dropped when it hit both of the receiver’s hands. I noted above that Stafford had this happen twice to him. Both should have been caught by an open receiver, but they were not. They weren’t the best throws, but NFL receivers should make those plays.
As I mentioned before, he also had a number of passes tipped by defensive linemen, although he really wasn’t pressured by defenders all that often on these throws. A play where a lineman gets his hands up in a throwing lane and tips a pass is still a protection failure, even if Stafford wasn’t technically pressured.
Finally, it’s worth noting that Stafford had a lot of errant throws on these interceptions. Ball placement appears to be a big issue with him, as he struggles to hit receivers in stride at times. That’s one of the biggest things he needs to work on.
What about distance covered? Stafford’s average depth of target on these throws was 21.8 yards. Where on the field was he throwing the ball? Here’s a breakdown of each throw:
Distance Breakdown
| Fewer than 6 Yards | 3 |
| Between 6 and 15 yards | 1 |
| More than 15 yards | 9 |
Location Breakdown
| Deep Left | Deep Middle | Deep Right |
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
| Intermediate Left | Intermediate Middle | Intermediate Right |
| 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Short Left | Short Middle | Short Right |
| 2 | 0 | 0 |
Stafford throws the ball downfield a lot. That is evident in both his average depth of target and his charting data on his interceptions. He threw twice as many deep interceptions as intermediate or short interceptions. This is a good sign for his ability to hit his targets in the short/intermediate range, but it also says that he might get a little too risky with his chances downfield. As you’ll see later, some of those deep shots came on third-and-long, so it’s hard to criticize those, but it’s still worth noting that Stafford can get careless with who he chooses to target on deep passes.
What about the time left on the clock? First, a breakdown of potential game situations, followed by a breakdown by quarter:
Situational Breakdown
| Crunch Time | 0 |
| Garbage Time | 1 |
| Desperation | 0 |
Quarter Breakdown
| 1st Quarter | 1 |
| 2nd Quarter | 6 |
| 3rd Quarter | 3 |
| 4th Quarter/Overtime | 3 |
Stafford only had one Garbage Time/Desperation/Crunch Time INT, and that was against the Patriots. Other than that, he mostly avoided throwing picks in the 4th Quarter. He struggled most in the second quarter, where you would hope that your team is able to build a lead and have control going into the second half. Stafford was also a comeback wizard last year, so many of those second quarter picks ended up being made irrelevant by fourth quarter comebacks.
Now let’s take a look at the interceptions he threw by down:
Down Breakdown
| 1st Down | 4 |
| 2nd Down | 4 |
| 3rd Down | 5 |
| 4th Down | 0 |
This breaks down pretty evenly for Stafford. However, as I mentioned before, he threw a lot of deep passes on third-and-long that ended up being intercepted. In fact, all 5 of his third down interceptions were deep passes in 3rd-and-10 or longer. In a lot of cases, those kinds of throws function like punts, but one did give up possession in field goal range.
What about the kinds of routes he was throwing to?
Route Breakdown
| Vertical | 6 |
| Curl | 4 |
| Out | 2 |
| Crossing | 1 |
Stafford’s interceptions did not come with a whole lot of route variety. He was mostly throwing to vertical routes, but he also targeted deep curl routes (about 20 yards down the field) a fair number of times. Rather than lacking the arm strength to throw deep balls, Stafford’s throws lacked precision.
Finally, let’s take a look at who Stafford was targeting on his interceptions:
Receiver Breakdown
| Calvin Johnson | 4 |
| Golden Tate | 4 |
| Corey Fuller | 3 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 |
| Jordan Thompson | 1 |
Calvin Johnson is great at catching contested passes. But, sometimes, Stafford threw balls that even Megatron couldn’t get under. All of the interceptions Stafford threw in Johnson’s direction were on vertical routes, and Stafford was simply off target on all of them. Had he been on target, there’s a good bet Calvin would have made those catches for big plays.
Stafford also threw to Golden Tate a lot, and he was productive, so some good with the bad makes sense. Corey Fuller, however, only caught one TD on the year while having three picks tossed his direction. That’s not a good sign for the former 6th round pick, who will be entering his third year. He was fully to blame for one of those interceptions and partially to blame for the other, so he needs to step it up in 2014.
